Pontius, R. Gil Jr., Cornell, Joseph D., & Hall, Charles A. S., In Press. Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: Application and validation with Costa Rica. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and the Environment. Volume ?? (Issue ??):Pages ??.


Modeling the Spatial pattern of Land-use Change with GEOMOD2: Application and validation with Costa Rica

R Gil Pontius Jr, Joseph D Cornell, and Charles A S Hall

Abstract

This paper presents a GIS-based model, GEOMOD2, which quantifies factors associated with land use, and simulates the spatial pattern of land use forward and backward in time. GEOMOD2 reads rasterized maps of land use and other biogeophysical attributes to determine empirically the attributes of land that humans tend to use. Then GEOMOD2 uses the patterns of those biogeophysical attributes to simulate the spatial pattern of land-use change. GEOMOD2 can select locations for land-use change according to any of three decision rules based on: (1) nearest neighbors, (2) stratification by political sub-region, and/or (3) the pattern of biogeophysical attributes. We use GEOMOD2 to simulate the progressive loss of closed-canopy forest in Costa Rica for 1940, 1961, and 1983, which are the years for which we have maps of land use. Also, we extrapolate the pattern of land use to the year 2010. When GEOMOD2 extrapolates land-use change over several decades, it is able to classify correctly between 84% and 86% of the grid cells, for two categories: forest versus non-forest. Over various simulation runs, Kappa ranges from 0.34 to 0.53.

KEY WORDS: GEOMOD, Kappa, land use, GIS model, simulation, validation.

Figures

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