Pontius, R. Gil Jr., Schneider, Laura. 2000. Land-cover change model validation by a ROC method. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and the Environment. Volume ?? (Issue ??):Pages ??.


Land-Cover Change Model Validation by a ROC Method

R Gil Pontius Jr and Laura C Schneider

Abstract

This paper describes how to use the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) as a quantitative measurement to validate a land-cover change model. Typically, a crucial component of a spatially explicit simulation model of land-cover change is a map of suitability for land-cover change, for example a map of probability of deforestation. The model usually selects locations for new land-cover change at locations that have relatively high suitability. The ROC can compare a map of actual change to maps of modeled suitability for land-cover change. ROC is a summary statistic derived from several two-by-two contingency tables, where each contingency table corresponds to a different simulated scenario of future land cover-change. The categories in each contingency table are actual change and actual non-change versus simulated change and simulated non-change. This paper applies the theoretical concepts to a model of deforestation in the Ipswich Watershed, USA.

Key Words

ROC, LUCC, land cover, suitability map, simulation model, validation.

Figures

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Copyright 2000 Graduate School of Geography, Clark University