Integrated
assessment and projection of land-use/cover change in the southern Yucatán peninsular
region of Mexico
Steven M.
Manson
This research develops a scenario-driven integrated model to project trends of tropical
deforestation and cultivation and their effect on biotic diversity and carbon
sequestration in the southern Yucatán peninsular region of Mexico. The research is
conducted as an integrated assessment: it is policy relevant and addresses the complex
interactions among socioeconomic and biophysical systems. It draws together several bodies
of theory by considering land-use/cover change the result of land manager decision making
in the context of the biophysical environment and socioeconomic institutions. This
conceptual focus is formed as an agent-based dynamic spatial simulation that 1) examines
several models of individual decision making subject to environmental and socioeconomic
constraints and 2) allows policy makers to evaluate the effects of alternative land-use
and institutional strategies. The model is calibrated and validated with household
surveys, archival research, and spatial data including aerial photography, satellite
imagery and geographic information system maps of land-use/cover and biophysical
characteristics. The proposed research addresses three themes typically underexplored by
current deforestation and integrated assessment models: 1) the distinct temporal and
spatial patterns of deforestation and cultivation; 2) the complexity of, and relationships
among, socioeconomic and environmental factors and 3) the value of information and the
role of uncertainty. |
