1
2	Land Change Science [Land and land dynamics in their own right] Multiple needs to improve data, understanding, explanation, and projections of land change at various spatial and temporal scales à corner-stone of global change and sustainability science
3
4
5
6	"“Final frontier”" “Final frontier” of tropical forest in México 50 years of economic extraction, settlement, development programs Designated “hot spot” of tropical deforestation Largest tropical forest biosphere reserve in México [Calakmul] El Mundo Maya: archaeo-eco-tourism Mesoamerican Biological Corridor Juxtapose the needs to cut and maintain forest
7
8
9	Up-wet/soils/water stress*
10
11	Seasonal Tropical Forest
12	Large Sites
13	Central Maya Lowlands: Landscape, circa AD 850
14	Forest Returns
15	Maya Impacts on Forest
16	Modern History: Start of Second Long Wave?
17	Hardwood Extraction, Post WW II
18	Hardwood “Extinction” Lundell, Standley, Miranda à abundant hardwoods in region Of 119 tree species in mature upland forests, S. macrophylla and C. odorata rank 56 and 92, respectively No species had dbh 40 cm!
19
20
21
22	Filling in the Region
23
24	HH & Ejido Characteristics
25	"Phase 2 [numbers under..." Phase 2 [numbers under development] Three village household survey in zonas chileras: 92% hh engage: E. Keys C. Busch’s chili survey under way Women’s participation in NGO and related activities: C. Radel Three village survey of household participation in government and NGO programs [e.g., PROCAMPO]: R. Roy Chowdhury HH response to fern invasion: L. Schneider Household life cycles: B. Schmook Various surveys by F. Gurri & program
26	Calakmul Biosphere Reserve
27	Biological Corridors
28	EL Mundo Maya
29	Chile/Chili
30
31
32	Smallholder Intensification
33	Sign of Degradation [?]
34
35	Effects on Land-Cover
36	Land-Use/HH Impacts Increasing winners/losers in chili Losersà male migration to Cancun & US Older ejidos Experiment with livestock or state/NGO-sponsored applications (e.g., legumes) Milpa highly linked to PROCAMPO direct payments “Manipulation” of NGO-state projects as learn empowerment
37	TM Imagery Analysis, GIS and the Regional Condition relevant for “human” side of land change and leading to empirical diagnostic models
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48	SYPR Modeling Approaches
49
50	Spatially Explicit, Agent-Based, Integrated Assessment Models
51	No Market Market
52	Decision Making – Spatial Outcomes
53
54
55	Funding Sources Overall Project NASA - LCLUC Program ECOSUR Center for Integrated Studies, Carnegie Mellon University NSF Biocomplexity Ecological Research Harvard Forest Conservation Research Foundation NSF – Environmental Biology Modeling Research Center for Integrated Studies, Carnegie Mellon University NASA New Investigator Fellowship Linked Research NASA’s Comparative Reserves-Park Study [Montana St. U-UMD) Specific Dissertation Research Fulbright Fellowship (Garcia Robles) Fulbright Hays NASA Earth Systems Science Fellowships (2) NSF Geography/Regional Science & Decision, Risk, and Management Science/INT-Americas Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grants (3) InterAmerican Foundation Fellowship Graduate Research Environmental Fellowship, GCEP, Office Bio. & Env. Res., Dept. of Energy Dissertation Research Grant, U. California Institute for Mexico and U.S. (UCMEXUS)